Copper can test Rs 432.30: Sharekhan

Sharekhan has come out with its report on Copper. According to the research firm, the metal is expected to test its swing high of Rs 432.30

MCX Copper has done a five-wave decline in its recent fall from Rs 454.65. It has taken support near a level at which it had taken support multiple times in the recent past and has entered a pullback mode. As per Elliott wave theory, a five-wave decline is usually followed by a three-wave pullback. Thus, unless the low of Rs 411.85 is broken, the red metal can go for a descent pullback.

The daily momentum indicator is showing a positive divergence, which adds to the bullish probability. Recently, copper has formed a bullish triangle. Thus, this is an opportunity to enter into fresh long position. On the upside, the key resistances are the 20-daily moving average (Rs 422) and the 40-daily exponential moving average (Rs 426). Overall, copper can test its swing high, ie Rs 432.30.

Technical Updates

MCX Aluminium April : Sell around 104 levels with a stop loss placed above 105 levels for targets of 102 levels.

Lead news Technical Updates

MCX Nickel April : Sell around 920 levels with a stop loss placed above 930 levels for targets of 905 levels.

MCX Lead April : Sell around 115 levels with a stop loss placed above 116 levels for targets of 113 levels.

Lead news

Lead prices recovered from the low at Rs 114.60 one can expected price to bounce till the resistant point at Rs 116.50, whereby we expect selling pressure to continue.

Aluminium oversupply in China sparks bearish trend: Barclays

Aluminium oversupply in China is expected to lead a bearish trend and inefficiencies in the market, stated a recent market analysis by London based Barclays.
 
Smelters are hoping that their low-cost additions in the north west could help bring down average production cost for the whole group, so that they can avoid shutting down high cost units.
Capacity ramp-up in Xinjiang province is going on unhindered with Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Shandong and Chongqing all adding capacity as well, the report added.
Analysts and producers the Barclays met with confirmed reports that there had been shut downs at high-cost locations such as Henan and Guangxi, to the tune of 400-450Ktpy.
Local governments who have promised various subsidies had in some cases begun to rescind those subsidies putting some producers under further pressure.
There was some discussion of whether the State Reserve Bureau (SRB) would make further purchases to support prices as the aluminium sector gets more government backing as high-level executives from SOEs have joined the cabinet.
However, the general feedback from the people was that it would only happen if production cuts began to exceed 1Mtpy.
Feedback on demand was similar to that in the copper market, with buying having improved in the past couple of weeks and likely to rise further for seasonal reasons during Q2.
However, with some market participants seeing much higher production than ourselves, of as much as 25Mt this year, any recovery in demand looks likely to be more than offset by strong supply growth.

Lead News 28/03/2013

Trend updated for-Mar/28/2013.CMP-115 Overall trend of the Lead is bearish for medium-long term .Currently Lead is in strong downtrend with good momentum but volume is unsatisfactory The open interest is not increasing with trend .. The oscillator is on BUY Signal and Lead is recovering from oversold level For short term Lead is in HOLD SHORT position.Positionally Immediate support for Lead is 113.Resistance for the Lead is 118-119-121-124-126-

Currently Lead is in HOLD SHORT position Lead has formed a new 5 day low yesterday but failed to keep the trend so if selling has to considered better below113.4 Buy if above 119.2 The oscillator is showing SELL signal
Intraday Trend- Buy is advised above 116.2 with a stop at 114 Below 113.4 go for sell

Intraday Resistance of LEAD are 115.8/116.6/119.5/122.6/127.9/130.9/136.7/142.6
Intraday Support of LEAD are 113.8/113/109.3/106.4/101.5/98.9/93.9/89.2

China Lead Concentrate imports dip 34% y/y in February; Tin 70%

China imported 110Kt of lead concentrate in February, which represented a modest 34% y/y contraction as well as a 19% higher m/m. Refined trade data saw China remain a modest net exporter of 427t. The data comes from Barclays' stable. 
Given the SHFE-LME arbitrage window was firmly shut – as has been the case since August last year – and SHFE stock levels rose by close to 20Kt during the month, there was little economic incentive to bring refined metal into the country.
Downstream trends were more positive during the month with lead battery production rising 19% y/y and e-bike output up 19%. If the trade data is suggestive of constrained activity at a refined level, then the Chinese lead market is certainly orientated in a direction towards re-tightening.
“We would urge caution in reading too much into this period of weakness due to the much later New Year holiday, which make February comparisons particularly difficult this year. Nevertheless, the broad trends fit our view that slower growth, rising domestic production and relatively high inventories of many commodities will keep China’s commodity import demand at relatively modest levels in 2013.” Barclays said in the report.
In-line with expectation, China’s net refined tin imports fell to just 1.2Kt in February, a near 70% y/y decline. This represents the lowest level of imports since July 2011 which we anticipated given that in previous periods of such extreme weakness in Chinese prices versus LME, refined imports have dropped to the 1Kt month level.
Indeed, the ITRI believe there is close to 18Kt of refined tin stock in China, and that short of lower imports of cutbacks in refined production, this hefty inventory overhang will not be eroded.
Tin ore and concentrate imports were also weaker, falling by 5% y/y to 3.2Kt and significantly lower than the sharp upside surprise figure of 17.6Kt recorded in January.

Trading tips for crude, nickel & aluminium

Ravindra Rao of Motilal Oswal Commodities suggests selling nickel. Rao says, "We expect prices might come up towards Rs 938 per kilogram levels, which can be used as a selling opportunity and on the upside the resistance is at Rs 952 per kilogram, which can be maintained as a strict stop loss. We expect prices might once again come lower till Rs 910 per kilogram."
Priyank Upadhyay of SSJ Finance & Securities recommends selling natural gas around Rs 217 per kilogram with a stop loss above Rs 221 per kilogram and targets of around Rs 210 per kilogram.

Dharmesh Bhatia of Kotak Commodities advocates buying aluminum. "Any decline towards Rs 110 per kilogram and below is a good level to accumulate maintaining a stop loss of Rs 100 per kilogram and hold long for target of around Rs 104-105 per kilogram," Bhatia adds.

Lead trend 26/03/2013

 Lead prices are expected to trade within the range from 120 to 117, one can trade within the range with a negative bias fresh selling expected below 117.

Trend updated for-Mar/26/2013.CMP-118 Overall trend of the Lead is bearish for medium-long term .Currently Lead is moving sideways The oscillator is on BUY Signal and Lead is recovering from oversold level .In last 1 month volatality is very less Buy the Lead above 122 or buy with strict stop at 116. The oscillator is on BUY Signal and Lead is recovering from oversold level For short term Lead is in HOLD SHORT position.Positionally Immediate support for Lead is 116.Resistance for the Lead is 119-121-126-

Currently Lead is in HOLD SHORT position Lead is moving sideways so short term investor better to buy only above 119.2 or hold with stop at 116.7 The oscillator is showing BUY signal

Intraday Trend- Buy is advised above 118.9 with a stop at 117 Below 116.5 go for sell
Intraday Resistance of LEAD are 118.5/119.2/123.2/126.3/131.7/134.7/140.6/146.6
Intraday Support of LEAD are 116.9/116.2/112.7/109.8/104.8/102.2/97.2/92.3

MCX LEAD

MCX LEAD Buy at 118.20, Stoploss 117.70, Target 119.

Aluminium news 25/03/2013

MCX Aluminium has formed a bullish hammer candlestick pattern on the weekly charts which is quite a positive sign for the bulls going forward. Now, 102.80 becomes a medium term support and a bounce back till 38.2 percent to 50 percent retracement level is expected i.e. till 108 to 109.50 levels respectively. The daily MACD has formed a double bottom kind of a pattern and it has come well into buy mode.

Lead news 25/03/2013

Trend updated for-Mar/23/2013.CMP-118 Overall trend of the Lead is bearish for medium-long term .Currently Lead is in strong downtrend but volume is unsatisfactory The open interest is not increasing with trend . Noting point is selling at lower levels seems decreasing. The oscillator is showing BUY signal For short term Lead is in HOLD SHORT position.Positionally Immediate support for Lead is 116.Resistance for the Lead is 119-122-126-127-

Currently Lead is in HOLD LONG position Lead is moving sideways with low volatality so short term investor better to buy if close above 119.35 close below 116.4 sell will happen. The oscillator is showing BUY signal
Intraday Trend-Intraday better to buy above 121.7 and Sell if below115.3

Intraday Resistance of LEAD are 119.6/120.6/123.3/126.4/131.8/134.8/140.7/146.7
Intraday Support of LEAD are 117.4/116.4/112.8/109.9/104.9/102.3/97.3/92.4

Lead news

MCX Lead March contract is looking negative for the day. Market may find support near 116.70, 115.60, intraday resistance can be seen near 118.40 & 119.50 Day traders are advised to sell intraday on rise. (Sell around 118.40 with SL 119.50 for the target of 116.70 & 115.60) 

MCX Nickel March contract is looking negative for the day. Market may find support near 908, 898, intraday resistance can be seen near 922 & 932. Day traders are advised to sell intraday on rise. (Sell around 922 with SL 932 for the target of 908 & 898.) 

MCX Aluminium March contract is looking negative for the day. Market may find support near 102.70, 101.60 intraday resistance can be seen near 103.80 & 104.90 Day traders are advised to sell intraday on rise. (Sell around 103.80 with SL 104.90 for the target of 102.70 & 101.60) 

Lead news 22/03/2013

Trend updated for-Mar/22/2013.CMP-117 Overall trend of the Lead is bearish for medium-long term .Currently Lead is in strong downtrend but volume is unsatisfactory The open interest is not increasing with trend . Noting point is selling at lower levels seems decreasing. The Lead is now trading in oversold level. The Lead is now trading in oversold level. The oscillator is showing SELL signal For short term Lead is in HOLD SHORT position.Positionally Immediate support for Lead is 116.Resistance for the Lead is 119-120-122-126-127-

Currently Lead is in HOLD LONG position Lead is moving sideways so short term investor better to buy only above 119.8 with stop at 116.4 The Lead is now trading is approaching oversold level. The oscillator is showing BUY signal

Intraday Trend- Buy is advised above 119.3 with a stop at 116.4 Below 115.6 go for sell
Intraday Resistance of LEAD are 118.5/119.4/123.2/126.3/131.7/134.8/140.7/146.6
Intraday Support of LEAD are 116.4/115.5/112.8/109.8/104.9/102.2/97.2/92.3

Sell around 118.80 with SL 119.80 for the target of 117.30 & 116.20

MCX Lead March contract is looking negative for the day. Market may find support near 117.30, 116.20, intraday resistance can be seen near 118.80 & 119.80 Day traders are advised to sell intraday on rise. (Sell around 118.80 with SL 119.80 for the target of 117.30 & 116.20) 

MCX Nickel March contract is looking negative for the day. Market may find support near 908, 898, intraday resistance can be seen near 922 & 932. Day traders are advised to sell intraday on rise. (Sell around 922 with SL 932 for the target of 908 & 898.) 

MCX Aluminium March contract is looking negative for the day. Market may find support near 103.20, 102.20 intraday resistance can be seen near 104.80 & 105.90 Day traders are advised to sell intraday on rise. (Sell around 104.80 with SL 105.90 for the target of 103.20 & 102.20) 

Lead news

Trend updated for-Mar/21/2013.CMP-118 Overall trend of the Lead is bearish for medium-long term .Currently Lead is in strong downtrend with good momentum but volume is unsatisfactory The open interest is not increasing with trend .. The Lead is now trading in oversold level. The Goldm is now trading in overbought level. The oscillator is showing BUY signal For short term Lead is in HOLD SHORT position.Positionally Immediate support for Lead is 116.Resistance for the Lead is 120-122-126-127-

Currently Lead is in HOLD SHORT position Lead is showing some Up momentum So buy above 119.0 with stop at 116.4 The Lead is now trading is approaching oversold level. The oscillator is showing SELL signal

Intraday Trend- Buy is advised only above 120.1 with a stop at 117.1 Below 116.3 go for sell and put stop at 119.3
Intraday Resistance of LEAD are 118.9/119.5/123.3/126.4/131.8/134.8/140.7/146.7
Intraday Support of LEAD are 117.5/116.9/112.8/109.9/104.9/102.3/97.3/92.4

Lead news

 Metals: Base metal futures on MCX were trading higher due to the weakness in rupee against the dollar, but a rangebound movement in benchmark contracts on the London Metal Exchange limited the rise. On LME, base metal contracts traded higher earlier in the day on bargain buying and as the initial shock over the Cyprus debt deal eased to some extent
MCX Lead March contract is looking negative for the day. Market may find support near 116.80, 115.70, intraday resistance can be seen near 118.80 & 119.80 Day traders are advised to sell intraday on rise. (Sell around 118.80 with SL 119.80 for the target of 116.80 & 115.70)

LEAD NEWS

MCX Copper April : Buy around 416 levels with a stop loss placed below 413 levels for targets of 420 levels.
MCX Nickel March : Buy around 910 levels with a stop loss placed below 895 levels for targets of 930 levels.

MCX Lead March : Buy around 117.50 levels with a stop loss placed below 116.50 levels for targets of 119 levels.

MCX Zinc March : Buy around 103.50 levels with a stop loss placed below 102.50 levels for targets of 105.50 levels.

MCX Aluminium March : Buy around 107.50 levels with a stop loss placed below 106.50 levels for targets of 109 levels

LEAD NEWS

Nirmal Bang has come out with its report on base metals. According to the research firm, Industrial metals are trading marginally lower today. Expect prices to remain under pressure on account of given renewed concerns of a euro zone crisis and only moderate demand growth from top consumer China.
China's expanding smelting capacity is due to weigh on copper concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) this year despite higher mine output, consultancy CRU said.  Japanese buyers have agreed to premiums for some April-June aluminium shipments at $248-$249 per tonne, up from the previous quarter and in line with increased demand after the winter slowdown, sources involved with trade talks said on Tuesday.  The global nickel market was in surplus by 17,000 tonnes in January 2013, a monthly bulletin from Lisbon-based International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed on Tuesday.  The global zinc market was in surplus by 40,000 tonnes in January, a monthly bulletin from Lisbon-based International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed on Monday.

Fundamental Outlook:

Industrial metals are trading marginally lower today. We expect prices to remain under pressure on account of given renewed concerns of a euro zone crisis and only moderate demand growth from top consumer China.(http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/brokerage-recos-commodities/base-metal-prices-to-remain-under-pressure-nirmal-bang_840701.html)

Lead news

Trend updated for-Mar/20/2013.CMP-118 Overall trend of the Lead is bearish for medium-long term .Currently Lead is in strong downtrend with good momentum and the trend is supported with good volume The open interest is not increasing with trend .. The Lead is now trading in oversold level. The Lead is now trading in oversold level. The oscillator is showing BUY signal For short term Lead is in HOLD SHORT position.Positionally Immediate support for Lead is 116.Resistance for the Lead is 120-123-126-127-

Currently Lead is in HOLD SHORT position The Lead is in downtrend For short term buy only if close above 119.0 The oscillator is showing SELL signal

Intraday Trend- Buy is advised only above 119.6 with a stop at 116.7 Below 115.9 go for sell and put stop at 118.8
Intraday Resistance of LEAD are 118.8/119.6/123.1/126.2/131.6/134.7/140.5/146.5
Intraday Support of LEAD are 116.7/115.9/112.7/109.7/104.8/102.1/97.1/92.3

Lead news

Trend updated for-Mar/19/2013.CMP-117 Overall trend of the Lead is bearish for medium-long term .Currently Lead is in strong downtrend and the trend is supported with good volume The open interest is not increasing with trend . Noting point is selling at lower levels seems decreasing. The Lead is now trading in oversold level. The Lead is now trading in oversold level. The oscillator is showing BUY signal For short term Lead is in HOLD SHORT position and closed below 1 month low with volume signals down breakout.Positionally Immediate support for Lead is 116.Resistance for the Lead is 120-121-123-126-127-

Lead and closed below 1 week low with volume signals down breakoutCurrently Lead is in HOLD SHORT position The Lead is in downtrend For short term buy only if close above 120.0 The oscillator is showing SELL signal

Intraday Trend- Buy is advised above 118.6 with a stop at 116.5 Below 116 go for sell
Intraday Resistance of LEAD are 118.1/118.9/120.3/122.9/126.1/131.5/134.5/140.4/146.4
Intraday Support of LEAD are 116.5/115.7/114.3/112.5/109.6/104.7/102/97/92.1

Short term and Intraday Level of LEAD

Trend updated for-Mar/18/2013.CMP-120 Overall trend of the Lead is bearish for medium-long term .Currently Lead is in downtrend but volume is unsatisfactory The open interest is not increasing with trend . Noting point is selling at lower levels seems decreasing. The Lead is now trading in oversold level. The Lead is now trading in oversold level. The oscillator is showing BUY signal For short term Lead is in HOLD LONG position.Positionally Immediate support for Lead is 118.Resistance for the Lead is 121-124-126-127-

Currently Lead is in HOLD LONG position Lead is moving sideways so short term investor better to buy only above 122.45 with stop at 118.75 The oscillator is showing SELL signal

Intraday Trend- Buy is advised above 120.9 with a stop at 118.8 Below 118.3 go for sell
Intraday Resistance of LEAD are 119.8/120/124.9/128.1/133.5/136.6/142.5/148.5
Intraday Support of LEAD are 119.4/119.2/114.4/111.4/106.5/103.8/98.7/93.8

Lead news

MCX Lead March contract is looking positive for the day. Market may find support near 120.80, 119.70, intraday resistance can be seen near 122.40 & 123.50 Day traders are advised to buy intraday on dips. (Buy around 120.80 with SL 119.70 for the target of 122.40 & 123.50)

Buy MCX Copper Apr Fut around Rs 425: Fortune Financial

Fortune Financial Services has come out with its report on Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Copper and Lead. According to the research firm, one can buy MCX Copper April Future around Rs 425 with stoploss Rs 422 for the target of Rs 428-431.

MCX Natural Gas March contract is looking positive the day. Market may find support near 203 & 200 intraday resistance can be seen near 207 & 210. Day traders are advised to buy intraday on dips. (Buy around 203 with SL 200 for the target of 207 & 210.) 

MCX Crude oil March contract is looking negative for the day. Market may find support near 5010 & 4960; intraday resistance can be seen near 5050 & 5100. Day traders are advised to sell intraday on rise. (Sell around 5050 with SL 5100, for the target of 5010 & 4960.) 

MCX Copper April contract is looking slightly positive for the day. Market may find support near 425 & 422; intraday resistance can be seen near 428 & 431. Day traders are advised to buy intraday on dips. (Buy around 425 with SL 422, for the target of 428 & 431.) 

MCX Lead March contract is looking positive for the day. Market may find support near 120.80, 119.70, intraday resistance can be seen near 122.40 & 123.50 Day traders are advised to buy intraday on dips. (Buy around 120.80 with SL 119.70 for the target of 122.40 & 123.50) 

LEAD NEWS

Copper futures for April delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) is expected to trade on a bearish note today, according to our analyst.
“The base metal has strong support at 425 while 428 is the resistance. If prices break 425 level then seller can sell with the stop loss of 428 for target near 421,” said Amrita Mashar Research Analyst at Commodity Online.
MCX copper for April delivery was down by 0.25 percent at Rs.426.20 per kilogram as of 04.14 PM IST.
Earlier, MCX copper opened on a negative note and touched intra-day low of 425.55 as investors eyed policy meetings by European Central Bank and Bank of England.
Market sentiments for base metals are not looking positive as selling pressure continues in the international market.
US non-farm payrolls are scheduled to be released on Friday and may impact base metal movement. Also, China is likely to announce its trade data for February, which will be followed by inflation and industrial numbers over the weekend.
Rising copper stocks and a drop in US factory orders directly caused for a weak trend at the London Metal Exchange (LME).
Members totalling six belonging to the European Central Bank Executive Board and 16 governors of Eurozone central banks will vote on setting of the interest rate later today. The decision is closely watched for by the traders as short-term interest rates influence currency valuation.
Subsequently a press conference by the European Central Bank (ECB) to be held at 07.00 PM IST today.
The ECB is expected to leave rates on hold at 0.75%, but concerns over the economy of the region fuelled speculation over the prospect of rate cuts.
Comex copper futures for April delivery was up by 0.25 percent at $ 3.502 per pound as of 04.28 PM IST on Thursday.

LEAD NEWS

Copper futures for April delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) is expected to trade on a bearish note today, according to our analyst.
“The base metal has strong support at 425 while 428 is the resistance. If prices break 425 level then seller can sell with the stop loss of 428 for target near 421,” said Amrita Mashar Research Analyst at Commodity Online.
MCX copper for April delivery was down by 0.25 percent at Rs.426.20 per kilogram as of 04.14 PM IST.
Earlier, MCX copper opened on a negative note and touched intra-day low of 425.55 as investors eyed policy meetings by European Central Bank and Bank of England.
Market sentiments for base metals are not looking positive as selling pressure continues in the international market.
US non-farm payrolls are scheduled to be released on Friday and may impact base metal movement. Also, China is likely to announce its trade data for February, which will be followed by inflation and industrial numbers over the weekend.
Rising copper stocks and a drop in US factory orders directly caused for a weak trend at the London Metal Exchange (LME).
Members totalling six belonging to the European Central Bank Executive Board and 16 governors of Eurozone central banks will vote on setting of the interest rate later today. The decision is closely watched for by the traders as short-term interest rates influence currency valuation.
Subsequently a press conference by the European Central Bank (ECB) to be held at 07.00 PM IST today.
The ECB is expected to leave rates on hold at 0.75%, but concerns over the economy of the region fuelled speculation over the prospect of rate cuts.
Comex copper futures for April delivery was up by 0.25 percent at $ 3.502 per pound as of 04.28 PM IST on Thursday.

LEAD NEWS

Base Metals: Base metals can trade on volatile path with short covering at lower levels can be seen as investors will eye euro zone GDP and US factory orders scheduled later today. Copper may trade in range of 428-435 in MCX while zinc may trade in range of 109-111 and Lead in range of 121-123.50. Nickel may trade in range of 905-921 in MCX and Aluminum can trade in range of 107-108.50.

Copper rose for a third day as a better-than-estimated service-sector growth in the U.S., the world’s second-biggest user of the industrial metal, boosted the demand outlook. Aluminum, zinc and lead also advanced. In the U.K. services unexpectedly accelerated last month, while euro-area services output shrank less than initially estimated. Earlier this week, China held a target for economic growth at last year’s level, supporting the demand prospect in the world’s biggest consumer of the metal